This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because of my well-documented fondness for the NBA Lottery, and the absolute chaos of this year's drawing is a great example why. Is it considered possibly the weakest, most wide-open class since the infamous 2013 draft? Yes. Was it still awesome to see the unexpected Jazz logo at #10 to indicate that two teams made large jumps into the top-4? Also yes.
It's always fun to talk through the implications of the random bounces of ping pong balls, so here are my main reactionary thoughts followed by a breakdown of how each previously traded pick turned out.
- After ESPN's Elle Duncan pointed out in the buildup that the Atlanta Hawks had never won the #1 pick, their small 3% chance of moving from the #10 pick to the top spot came through. They're the biggest long shot winner in 10 years, when the Cavaliers had a 1.7% chance of moving from 9th to 1st, and it is the second-largest jump in lottery history, behind only the 1993 Magic's rise from the 11 spot despite the low 1.52% odds. Shoot, they're the first ever team from the Play-In Tournament to move up in the lottery!
Really, this is what the updated format intended when the NBA flattened the odds of the 2019 draft to limit tanking. The Hawks' 3% was obviously low, but it was still higher than some prior wins like the Bulls in '08 (1.7%) or the Cavs in '11 (2.8%) and the aforementioned '14, even though Atlanta finished higher in the standings. Now a new door of possibilities is open for a team that had fallen onto the "treadmill of mediocrity" with three straight years in the Play-In, and it will be fascinating to see how they approach it.
