The NBA (and NHL) playoffs start today! As usual, I wanted to take a quick look at each matchup through a lens of their records and net, offensive, and defensive ratings, per NBA.com, before making a pick for each series. I also like to point out certain trends for each playoff team with either lineup data or notable hot streaks that I saw while perusing Basketball Reference. Instead of my random tweets like this that quickly get lost, this is a way to highlight something going on with a player and easily be able to look back on it.
#1 Celtics (64-18, +11.7, #1 O, #2 D) vs. #8 Heat (46-36, +1.8, #21 O, #5 D)
Almost all of these blurbs are going to give a reason for optimism on each side of the matchup...but not in this one to start. I think the Celtics are the clear favorites to win the championship, and although they have had some great battles with the Heat over the years, this year's edition will be missing Jimmy Butler (and likely Terry Rozier) due to injury. Boston coasted to the #1 seed by 14 games in the East and finished with a +11.4 raw point differential that was the fifth-best in NBA history. They are elite on both ends of the floor and can play either small or big with the versatility of their stars. Their main starting lineup of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis had a +11.0 net rating, and subbing in sixth-man Al Horford for Holiday to create a huge lineup had a +16.2 net rating as their third-most used lineup. Any way you slice it, there is a lot to like with this team that I'm picking to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
While I have a hard time thinking that this depleted Miami team can take more than one game off of Boston (and that's only out of respect for their history and what Erik Spoelstra can come up with), I do want to give a shoutout to Nikola Jovic, who's carved out a role after bouncing in and out of the rotation. Once he entered the starting lineup for good over his final 26 games, he only averaged 22.2 minutes but put up 9.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists with 47.6%/39%/81.5% shooting. That's pretty solid on a per-minute basis for a 20 year old in his second year, and overall on the season, his 39.9% shooting and 21.3% defensive rebounding rate as a 6'10" player can compliment Bam Adebayo nicely. It's just more of something to watch for next year, after this likely short series.
Celtics in 5
#2 Knicks (50-32, +4.9, #7 O, #9 D) vs. #7 76ers (47-35, +3.1, T-#13 O, #11 D)
Pretty much everyone will agree that this is about as dangerous of a 7-seed as you'll see since they only ended up in the Play-In due to injuries. They were 29-7 with a +12.4 net rating when both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey play, after all. The question as always this time of year is how healthy will Embiid be? After mostly keeping their powder dry on the trade front, there isn't a ton of reliable support around the two stars if either should falter.
I loved that New York went all out on the last day of the season to secure the 2nd seed, including keeping starters in for overtime even after knowing the other results. There is the usual issue of Tom Thibodeau playing his guys too many minutes, though, and whether that will catch up to them. Josh Hart played 40+ minutes 22 times since the end of January. Miles McBride played 43+ minutes 10 times in a 16 game span! Aside from that worry, this team is looking good with home court advantage until a potential matchup with Boston and just fits so well together, as evidenced by going 20-3 with OG Anunoby.
Knicks in 6
