2023 NBA Offseason Tracker

It's NBA free agency time! With agreements for the new league year allowed to start coming in today at 3:00 PT, it's time to switch over from the moves over the past week and a half (including trades this morning) to this post that will be updated constantly through the summer. The newest deals will be at the top for the sake of ease, with "Command F" definitely helpful to find certain players as the signings pour in.

Like always, I'll cite who first reported the news (Adrian Wojnarowski, Shams Charania, Chris Haynes, etc) on which day, and I'm projecting reported salaries with the standard 5% and 8% raises for new and incumbent teams, respectively, in bold italics. Figures for existing contracts in trades usually come from Keith Smith on Spotrac, and stats are from Basketball Reference, RealGM, or the NBA's advanced stats page. The visual key consists of my estimates/player options/team options/not fully guaranteed.

With the salary cap officially set at $136,021,000 with a luxury tax line of $165,294,000, the First Apron at $172,346,000 million, and the Second Apron at $182,794,000 million, here are some key figures:

• The first year of a max salary for a player with six or fewer years of experience is 25% of the cap, so $34,005,250 this season, which means a highest possible total of 4 years, $146,222,575 million if signing with a new team or 5 years, $197,230,450 million with his previous team.
• The 30% numbers for a player with seven to nine years of experience are $40,806,300 to total 4/$175,467,090 or 5/$236.64 million.
• For players with 10 or more years, the 35% numbers (I hate the term "supermax") are $47.6 million to total 4/$204.68 million or 5/$236,676,540.
• If a team is under the First Apron, the full Mid-Level Exception, aka the MLE, is for $12,405,000 and can go up to $53,341,500 over four years.
• Teams that stay under the Second Apron can use the Taxpayer MLE that was reduced in the new CBA going into effect today, and it can start at $5,000,000 and top out at 2 years, $10.25 million.
• Teams that operate under the salary cap and then reach it can then use the Room MLE that was boosted in the new CBA to start at $7,723,000 and can now go for 3 years, to total $24,327,450.
• The Bi-Annual Exception, or BAE, for teams that didn't use it the previous year can start at $4,516,000 and go for a total of 2 years, $9,257,800.
• Lastly, minimum salaries will range from about $1.1 million for rookies all the way to almost $3.2 million now for those with 10+ years, not too far off of the taxpayer MLE. As always, if a veteran signs just a one year deal at the minimum, he will count the same as a player with 2+ years of experience (about $2 million this year), while earning the full amount.

And now, let the fun begin!

Hart extends with the Knicks: 4 years, $81 million (Woj 8/9)

Josh Hart

$12,960,000

$18,144,000

$19,595,520

$21,047,040

$22,498,560

Now who could've predicted this exact deal when he picked up his player option back in June? Doing it this way gives New York breathing room under the luxury tax than if they simply agreed on a 5 year, $94.2 million deal in free agency since Hart would have had a $16.2 million starting salary in that case.

8/10 update: Fred Katz reports that the last year is a team option, which is in line with a lot of the Knicks' deals in recent years.

Davis extends with the Lakers: 3 years, "$186 million" (Woj 8/4)

Anthony Davis

$40,600,080

$43,219,440

$52,185,000

$56,359,800

$60,534,600

Based on the current projection for the 2025 salary cap, this deal would be for about $169 million, which is what I'm projecting above. Like so many of the extensions this summer, the reported number is if the cap raises by the maximum of 10% each year. I believe this involves Davis picking up his $43,219,440 player option for the 2024-25 season in order to tack on 3 years from there.

8/6 update: Scotto adds that the last year of this deal is a player option, and Gozlan noted over the weekend that the last year of Davis' previous contract was technically an Early Termination Option rather than a player option. They are effectively the same, but an ETO can't be declined as part of an extension, which is why it had to be picked up even though that $43.2 million is well short of the projected $49.7 million max next summer that this extension could have otherwise started at.

Temple joins the Raptors: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 7/31)

Garrett Temple

$2,019,706

As Woj noted in his tweet, the take home for Temple is the $3,196,448 minimum for players with 10+ years of experience. It's not the $5,401,000 he could have gotten if New Orleans didn't waive him, but it's good money for a 37 year old who is more known for his locker room presence than on-court contributions at this point.

Antetokounmpo returns to the Bucks (Shams 7/28)

Thanasis Antetokounmpo

$2,019,706

I thought that Milwaukee might leave their 15th spot open due to being in the repeater tax for the first time, so kudos to them for continuing to spend, with most likely a one year minimum, as they contend (and keep a certain brother of Thanasis happy).

Brown extends with the Celtics: 5 years "up to $304 million" (Spears/Shams 7/25)

Jaylen Brown

$31,830,357

$49,700,000

$53,676,000

$57,652,000

$61,628,000

$65,604,000

Like with the rookie extensions earlier in the month, the "up to" language used by Marc Spears is carrying a lot of weight since based on next year's currently projected $142 million salary cap, a 35% raise would be for $288.3M, which I have above. Shams noting that there's no player option at the end is likely the other key negotiating point that was resolved. If the cap raises by the highest possible amount of 10%, then it would come out to $303.7M.

Dowtin returns to the Raptors: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/22)

Jeff Dowtin

$2,019,706

A training camp deal "with a significant salary guarantee if he makes the opening night roster" is an interesting outcome after Dowtin was a restricted free agent with a two-way qualifying offer. The 26 year old combo guard has done really well in the G League the last two years, and he could fill an area of need. for Toronto.

Dosunmu returns to the Bulls: 3 years, $21 million (Woj 7/21)

Ayo Dosunmu

$6,481,481

$7,000,000

$7,518,519

With a limited market due to restricted free agency, getting a little less than the Room MLE is a solid outcome for the former 2nd round pick. Only 23, Dosunmu now has some financial security just two years into his career and can hit free agency again at age 26. Chicago maintains their strong group of guards while remaining a little under $2 million away from the tax with this deal, which makes it even more unlikely that they use the Disabled Player Exception they received for Lonzo Ball or the rest of their MLE.

2023 NBA Draft Week(-ish) Summary

Happy Father's Day! I'd say that the NBA offseason has officially kicked off because the Denver Nuggets won the Finals, but they actually got a head start by making a trade involving picks while the series was still going on. To keep track of everything, I'm going to be updating this post throughout the week leading up to the NBA Draft on Thursday, backdated to that first deal. The newest deals will be at the top, starting with today's big move with Bradley Beal, and then once we hit the new league year on June 30th (with deals official on July 6th), I'll create a new post for the official offseason.

As usual, the salary figures mostly come from Keith Smith on Spotrac; stats are from Basketball Reference, Sports Reference, and RealGM; heights from the combine are without shoes like the NBA made official in 2019; and I'll cite where the news is first reported and on which day. Contracts are visually coded as estimates/player options/team options/not fully guaranteed.

Draft results

To keep things organized now, draft results and thoughts are at the top, and then the big moves are under Transactions in order of recency. "Command F" is definitely your friend here to find specific players.

Spurs

#1 Victor Wembanyama

Traded #33 for two future 2nd round picks

#44 Sidy Cissoko

I don't think I need to repeat myself any further on the greatest prospect in at least 20 years. I didn't love that they traded their next pick with how much talent was on the board in the early 2nd, namely Leonard Miller who was taken in that spot, but getting his G League Ignite teammate and another French player to go with Wemby was a nice pick later on. Cissoko is still a pretty raw 19 year old wing, but he has some potential tools down the line at 6'5.5", 224 lbs with a 6'9.75" wingspan. The shooting line over the whole season, 43.6%/31.4%/64.3%, isn't great, but he did average over 1 made 3 per game along with a block and a steal. He can also create a little bit with 3.1 assists against 1.9 turnovers, so this could end up a nice value pick.

Hornets

#2 Brandon Miller

#27 Nick Smith Jr

Traded #34 and #39 for #31 James Nnaji

#41 Amari Bailey

I've been on the Scoot Henderson train for a long time as the 2nd-best prospect in this class (there's a reason rumored trade ups were for him), but I can at least understand why Charlotte went in another direction. They have their franchise point guard in LaMelo Ball, and while the incumbent's size and shooting could allow them to work together, adding a big wing is an easy fit on any roster. Miller is a great prospect in his own right, and it helps that GM Mitch Kupchak was reportedly watching first hand when the Alabama freshman had his most impressive performance in South Carolina. That came right after the revelation that Miller drove the car containing the gun used in the death of Jamea Jonae Harris, and although he faces no charges in the tragic incident, the involvement certainly raises questions for a team who might bring back another controversial forward, Miles Bridges. 

Other possible concerns about him as a prospect include a lack of explosiveness and the fact that he's older than a typical one-and-done, having already turned 20 in November. That's what holds me back from a Paul George comparison, particularly with finishing inside, but it's funny that he is Miller's favorite player because the similarities in how they play were apparent from early on in the season. Reportedly 6'9" (likely in shoes) with a 7'1" wingspan, I think he could be a mix of Khris Middleton and Brandon Ingram with the two-way potential. Miller is an excellent shooter who made 85.9% of his free throws and 38.5% of an astounding 7.5 3-point attempts per game, and that was an even better 43.1% over his first 28 games before a late shooting slump that might have been injury related. His 2.1 assists really undersells how good of a passer he is with either hand, and averaging 0.9 steals and blocks each shows how he can be a reliable defender, if not a standout one.

After passing on Henderson, the Hornets ending up with two other upside combo guards with more size worked out really well for them. Smith also didn't measure at the Combine but is reported to be 6'5" with a 6'8" wingspan, and this was excellent value late in the 1st. After coming into the season as the top projected college prospect, a preseason knee injury caused him to miss time twice, and it was admirable that the Arkansas native came back the second time to help his hometown team when clearly not 100%. In 14 starts (two of his three bench cameos were very brief), he averaged 14.9 points on 38.5%/34.8%/75.5% shooting with 2 assists, 1.6 rebounds, and 1 steal in 29.4 minutes. Being limited was most apparent with that abysmal rebounding and only shooting 40.5% on 2's as he settled for tough floaters so often. He needs to get stronger on defense, but he puts in an effort with his length at least. I really like this bet on potential because if all goes well, he could be a Jamal Crawford type of guard but with some two-way play.

Bailey did measure (6'3.25", 191 lbs, and a 6'7" wingspan) before having strong Combine scrimmages that led him to staying in the draft after he also had an up and down season as a heralded recruit at his hometown school, UCLA. He really finished strong during tournament games with increased minutes after Jaylen Clark's injury: 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.3 steals in 33 minutes with 56.1%/46.7%/82.1% shooting over the final six contests. I wonder if he could've been a lottery pick in next year's weaker class had he continued to improve back in school, but this is a nice situation for him to develop next to a primary playmaker. The comparison to Delonte West by Kevin O'Connor feels appropriate based on Bailey's potential as a lefty combo guard who can shoot, defend well, and operate as a secondary creator.

It made sense to consolidate a couple of picks since they had five, but it caught me by surprise that they gave up #39 to move up just three spots for Nnaji after Mark Williams just had an impressive rookie season at center. This comes after a nice extension for Nick Richards and trading into the 1st a couple of years ago for Kai Jones, so that could be a lot of roster spots for big men. That being said, I am a fan of Nnaji's upside as a shot-blocking rim runner who is getting some minutes for Euroleague powerhouse Barcelona despite not turning 19 until August. He's already around 6'11", 251 lbs with a 7'7.25" based on a video provided to Jonathan Givony, who noted similarities to DeAndre Jordan.