The 2020-21 NBA season is officially in the books, so I wanted to take a little look at every team's season in total with some power rankings! To provide a nice summary, I am listing record, playoff seed if applicable, point differential, and rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency from NBA.com along with (what I consider) an interesting note for each. These are how I personally view them based on their complete season profile and how they look heading into the playoffs.
#1. Nets: 48-24, #2 seed, +4.5 (#1 offense, #22 defense)
I'm reluctant to really call Brooklyn the championship favorite with this defense, but at 117.3, they just broke the NBA record for offensive efficiency that Dallas set last year at 115.9. While it's hard to get a true idea of their ceiling since Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving only played 8 games together, they had a +7.2 net rating (119.6, 112.5) in 202 minutes together. Furthermore, a torn Achilles is the only thing that has stopped Durant in his last three postseasons, and I don't think a big enough deal has been made about how ridiculously well he has bounced back from that. Averaging 26.94 points, 7.06 rebounds, 5.57 assists, 0.71 steals, and 1.29 blocks in only 33.03 minutes with 53.73%/44.97%/88.24% shooting is unheard of after that massive of an injury. The two time Finals MVP made 57.73% of his 2's with an 83.3% mark in the restricted area, and with a career-high 25.4% of his shots coming from the mid-range, he converted an efficient 53.6% of those shots. Rolling with him flanked by two other offensive savants and a multitude of interesting options feels like the right call.
#2. Jazz: 52-20, #1 seed, +9.2 (T-#4 offense, #3 defense)
Objectively, Utah have been the best team in the league by far as they followed up a 27-9 first half of the season with a 25-11 finish. This strong of a point differential and record typically fits the profile of a big title favorite, and indeed, they win it all in 36.8% of Basketball Reference's simulations while the next closest is 13.3%. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's projections have them as the favorite to win 26% of the time using their Elo forecast with the next closest at 14%, but they're only third with a 14% chance using their RAPTOR player ratings. I lean towards the latter with regards to the postseason considering that this core group has only won one playoff series in the past three years since Donovan Mitchell was drafted, and it doesn't help that he hasn't played since spraining his ankle on April 16th. They deserve this high of a ranking based on the regular season, but I wouldn't be surprised if an upset occurs in the first two rounds.
#3. Clippers: 47-25, #4 seed, +6.2 (#3 offense, #8 defense)
I was tempted to follow suit with the RAPTOR ratings and pick LA to win it all like I did last year, but I'm hesitant after their collapse to blow a 3-1 lead in the second round last year. I also didn't love how much they rested players down the stretch in what appeared to be an avoidance of any chance of the Lakers in the 1st round, which dropped them to the 4 seed. Still, the dynamic duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George looks even better this season: they had a +17.6 net rating in the 1,028 minutes played together. The team went 32-11 when both played, which would translate to over 61 wins in a full 82 game schedule, and that was with different lineups around them. The original starting unit with Patrick Beverley, Nicolas Batum, and Serge Ibaka went 14-5 with a +16.7 net rating in 264 minutes of sharing the floor, and then injuries actually led to an even more cohesive group as the stars paired with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Ivica Zubac went 15-5 with a +18.8 net rating in 215 minutes. Now that Beverley and Ibaka have recently returned, it will be interesting to see what combinations new coach Ty Lue rolls with, but in any case, they'll go as far as Leonard and George take them. Remarkably, the two of them actually posted incredibly similar stats that included elite efficiency and well-rounded contributions:
#4. Bucks: 46-26, #3 seed, +5.9 (T-#4 offense, T-#9 defense)
After the last couple of postseason disappointments, Milwaukee changed things up with the big addition of Jrue Holiday and more experimenting with a switching defense, and now we'll see how much these changes will pay off. The former has been everything they hoped for with his usual two-way excellence, and they have a +12.7 net rating in the 922 minutes he played next to stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. It will be a tough road as they open with the Heat team that eliminated them last year before likely facing the Nets and then the 76ers just to reach the Finals, though.
#5. 76ers: 49-23, #1 seed, +5.5 (#13 offense, #2 defense)
Conversely, a 7-2 record in May clinched the all important top seed in the East for Philadelphia, which means that they don't have to face either Brooklyn or Milwaukee until the Conference Finals. I think they are slightly below those two in the aggregate, but I do love their main starting five that fits around a point forward like I originally imagined when Ben Simmons was drafted. Somewhat ironically, he posted career lows on offense individually as he was unleashed on the other end as possibly the Defensive Player of the Year, but that lineup of him, Seth Curry, Danny Green, Tobias Harris, and Joel Embiid went 27-5 with a +14.0 net rating in 656 minutes together. Under new coach Doc Rivers, Embiid might've been the league MVP if he played more than 51 games, and his 28.5 points per game in just 31.1 minutes is even more amazing when you look at how much this defensive team needs offense. Whether or not Simmons and Harris can provide enough perimeter creativity around him in crunch time will determine just how far they go.
#6. Suns: 51-21, #2 seed, +5.8 (T-#6 offense, #6 defense)
Like Utah, Phoenix's season deserves a ton of praise, but it's hard to have confidence in it carrying over to the playoffs just yet. Yes, Chris Paul is incredible at the end of games, as evidenced by their league-leading 9-3 record in games that finished within 3 points. It's hard to consistently count on that, though, and with this being the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2010, a lot of their young team is inexperienced in the big moment. They might even be underdogs in the first round against the Lakers.
#7. Lakers: 42-30, #7 seed, +2.7 (#24 offense, #1 defense)
Speaking of which, this ranking is clearly based mostly out of respect for LA's ceiling that was shown in a 21-6 start before Anthony Davis got injured. The 30-15 record when LeBron James plays is probably the most indicative number to look at overall, and the defending champs obviously know how to turn it on when the bright lights are on. However, we'll see just how healthy the two stars are after dealing the play-in game.
#8. Nuggets: 47-25, #3 seed, +5.0 (T-#6 offense, T-#11 defense)
Denver has a 21-7 record since trading for Aaron Gordon, including a surprising 13-5 since the seemingly crushing blow of Jamal Murray's torn ACL, and they have the likely MVP in Nikola Jokic. Why aren't they ranked higher as dark horse contenders then? Murray's presence really means that much to their ceiling against the best teams like we saw in the bubble last year. Longtime readers know I love Michael Porter Jr., but as awesome as he's been to carry the offensive load in these 18 games with 23.5 points in 33.4 minutes on 56.0%/48.9%/85.4% shooting, he's not the creator that Murray is next to the Joker.
#9. Mavericks: 42-30, #5 seed, +2.2 (#8 offense, T-#20 defense)
A 24-14 second half of the season stands out when look at post All-Star Break splits, but I think the Dallas season really turned around after an embarrassing 147-116 loss to Golden State on national television dropped them to 9-14. Luka Doncic showed the kind of superstar that he is two days later against the same Warriors team for a narrow victory that kicked off a 9-2 stretch going into the Break. Not coincidentally, that was also when Doncic rediscovered his outside touch as he entered that baseball series only shooting 29% on threes in his first 21 games before making 37.2% of them with 9 attempts per game over his final 45 contests.
#10. Knicks: 41-31, #4 seed, +2.3 (#22 offense, #4 defense)
An impressive 22-13 second half of the season increased New York's point differential by 1.8 and secured home court advantage for the first round. That record actually could've been even better had they not gone 2-9 in games that finished within 3 points, but all in all this was obviously an outstanding debut season for Tom Thibodeau in his return to the franchise. If they advance to face Philly in the second round, then things might really feel like some of their glory days in the 90s with the level of defense that will be played.
#11. Hawks: 41-31, #5 seed, +2.3 (#9 offense, #18 defense)
After starting 14-20 before firing Lloyd Pierce, Atlanta finished 27-11 under Nate McMillan. Some of that was just getting healthy and a favorable part of the schedule, but this team is now showing that they do have some nice firepower. The young players making their playoff debuts could get tricky against New York's tough defense, though, especially if Trae Young doesn't get his usual questionable foul calls that allowed him to lead the league in free throws to offset his underwhelming outside consistency.
#12. Trail Blazers: 42-30, #6 seed, +1.8 (#2 offense, #29 defense)
I'll say this for Portland: they are a consistent bunch. After going 21-14 before the All-Star Break, they were 21-16 after it, and there was almost zero defense throughout. Even with some new faces like Robert Covington and Norman Powell, it always seems like the same story with this group. They outperform their point differential thanks to timely offense in close games, but they can't get the consistent stops necessary against the big boys in the playoffs. Maybe they'll prove me wrong against the Murray-less Nuggets since Jusuf Nurkic, who was originally drafted by Denver, is back now.
#13. Heat: 40-32, #6 seed, +0.1 (#18 offense, T-#9 defense)
The overall resumes of the teams above them deserved their spots, but I almost had Miami higher since the defending East champs did go 33-19 when Jimmy Butler played. The 31 year old posted career-highs in rebounds, assists, steals, field goal percentage, and PER as hub of their offense The odd part of this is that it came despite the continued mysterious disappearance of his 3-point shot: after making a decent 34.1% of threes in the first eight years of his career, he's only shot 24.4% in Miami.
#14. Warriors: 39-33, #8 seed (pre play-in), +1.0 (T-#19 offense, #5 defense)
I almost let my bias rank Golden State higher because once Kevon Looney and Kent Bazemore became entrenched in their featured roles next to Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins on April 10th, they went 15-5 with a league leading +9.0 net rating (#8 offense, 115.6; #1 defense, 106.6). Overall, that five man group has a +9.3 rating in 268 minutes together, which ended up as their most used lineup since so many injuries hampered them throughout the year. That impressive finish was of course fueled by Curry averaging a jaw-dropping 37.2 points in 34.7 minutes as shown below, and finishing with 32 points per game for the season gave him his second scoring title. He joined Michael Jordan as the only players to lead the league at age 33 or older, and it's a shame that turnovers, fouls, and being worn down from the limited rotation late in the season cost them both play-in games. I still decided to keep them just ahead of the team that eliminated them since they split the season series and finished just ahead of them for the year, though. What's interesting is that their offense that is maligned for not having enough help around Curry to rank in the bottom 10 for much of the season finished with 110.5 points per 100 possession, which is actually more than their 110.4 offensive rating that ranked 2nd in the league when this group won their first title in 2015.
#15. Grizzlies: 38-34, #8 seed (post play-in), +1.0 (#15 offense, #7 defense)
It's an extremely small sample size after a torn meniscus from last season limited Jaren Jackson Jr. to just 13 games, but Memphis did go 5-1 once he was ready to become a starter again (including the play-in games that don't officially count in the records). Importantly, after his defensive rebounding rate dropped from 15.0% as a rookie to just 13.2% last year, he improved to 18.7% while also improving his block rate from 5.1% and 5.0% to 6.3%. As the sidekick to Ja Morant, this young team needs his promising ceiling to try to make even more postseason noise.
#16. Celtics: 36-36, #7 seed, +1.4 (#10 offense, #13 defense)
Jaylen Brown's ascendant season ending prematurely due to wrist surgery pretty much derails Boston's chances at a deep postseason run and is sadly fitting given all of the fits and starts to their season with key players unavailable. Jayson Tatum can at least provide incredible highlights for the fans like his 50 piece in the play-in victory, but I'm afraid that being shorthanded will be exposed against Brooklyn before long.
#17. Wizards: 34-38, #8 seed, -1.9 (#17 offense, T-#20 defense)
It was hard to find a proper place for Washington after their 17-6 finish salvaged their season that was disrupted by COVID-19 more than most. Increasing their point differential by 2.4 since the All-Star Break puts them in a little more respectable range, at least, and this ranking is based on the overall talent that they've shown en route to officially making the dance.
#18. Pacers: 34-38, #9 seed (pre play-in), +0.0 (#14 offense, #14 defense)
We've reached a theme here of teams that lost players for stretches of times due to various kinds of health concerns, and here's a look at the amount of games played for some of Indiana's main players out of 72. Starting with those who were unavailable for the play-in: Myles Turner, 47...Caris LeVert (acquired after 11 games), 35...Jeremy Lamb, 36...T.J. Warren, 4 (!!)...and the returning Malcolm Brogdon, 56.
#19. Spurs: 33-39, #10 seed (pre play-in), -1.7 (T-#19 offense, T-#15 defense)
San Antonio has now missed the playoffs in back to back years after making it 22 seasons in a row, and a backloaded schedule caused by postponed games due to health and safety protocols really caught up to them. They only went 15-25 after the All-Star Break, including a 2-8 record in May.
#20. Hornets: 33-39, #10 seed (pre play-in), -1.9 (#23 offense, T-#15 defense)
Similarly, Charlotte only went 3-7 in May to cap a 16-21 second half. A lot of it can be traced to Gordon Hayward's sprained foot as they went 8-16 after his last game on April 2nd, and overall, they were 9-19 without him compared to 24-20 when he played.
#21. Pelicans: 31-41, -0.3 (#11 offense, #23 defense)
New Orleans was kind of like Portland-lite with their strong offense, porous defense, and nearly matching 15-21 and 16-20 records before and after the All-Star Break. That's not what you'd necessarily expected from a Stan Van Gundy team, but on the bright side, they almost can't get any worse in close games. Their 10 losses in games decided by 3 or fewer points led the league, and they only had 3 such victories themselves.
#22. Bulls: 31-41, -0.9 (#21 offense, T-#11 defense)
A 4-11 stretch when Zach LaVine dealt with health and safety protocols really hampered Chicago's playoff push, and overall they were only 15-23 in second half of the season. I thought that acquiring Nikola Vucevic would secure at least a play-in appearance, but due in part to those missed LaVine games, they finished tied for the 8th worst record. That means that there is a 79.7% chance that the top-4 protected pick involved in that trade gets sent to Orlando, per Tankathon.com.
#23. Raptors: 27-45, -0.4 (#16 offense, T-#15 defense)
I don't even know where to begin with this Toronto team that was probably affected the most by COVID-19, which is really saying something. They had to play "home" games in Tampa Bay and were without members of both the team and coaching staff for a lot of games, leading to a record that belies their talent. When they were 17-19 at the All-Star Break but with a strong point differential, I thought that this was a sleeping giant ready to go on a run that would match their record with how well they played, but once everything really caught up to them, they threw in the towel. A 1-8 record in May to go along with a 1-13 March provided them with the 7th best odds going into the Lottery.
#24. Kings: 31-41, -3.7 (#12 offense, #30 defense)
That 30th ranked defense really stands out, but the good news is that at least some improvement to 23rd over the second half of the season resulted in a 17-19 record. I still can't believe that my guy Tyrese Haliburton somehow dropped to the 12th pick, but he was everything I expected and more to help them turn things around. A rookie guard only averaging 1.6 turnovers while dishing 5.3 assists and shooting 47.2%/40.9%/85.7% with 2.1 made threes per game in only 30 minutes per game does not happen often.
#25. Timberwolves: 23-49, -5.6 (#25 offense, #28 defense)
Speaking of top rookies, #1 pick Anthony Edwards really took off down the stretch with post All-Star Break averages of 23.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 35.2 minutes on 45.5%/34.9%/76.2% shooting. That was a large factor in Minnesota going 16-25 with Chris Finch as coach after starting just 7-24 under Ryan Saunders. Furthermore, they were 13-11 when Karl Towns and D'Angelo Russell finally were healthy at the same time, which was such a rare occurrence early on that it seemed like they might be the worst team in the league that's also at risk of losing their draft choice. Alas, that late surge of wins, including on the last day against a Dallas team that wasn't trying, left them with the 6th worst record, which means that they only have a 27.61% chance of keeping their top-3 protected pick owed to the Warriors.
#26. Pistons: 20-52, -4.5 (#26 offense, #19 defense)
Detroit was an odd team since they were thoroughly mediocre with matching 10-26 records for both before and after the All-Star Break, but their point differential wasn't terrible, at least compared to the teams around them. Going 1-8 in close games contributed to them underachieving their 26-46 expected record, but their three 1st round picks all showed signs of promise along the way.
#27. Cavaliers: 22-50, -8.5 (#28 offense, #25 defense)
The bottom really fell out for Cleveland with just an 8-28 record in the second half of the season. The small backcourt of Darius Garland and Collin Sexton doesn't seem to be working, but the more pressing matter for now is Jarrett Allen's restricted free agency. They'll likely match any offer sheet that he gets, but depending on how expensive he becomes, how badly would they want to move Kevin Love's $60.2 million over the next two years?
#28. Magic: 21-51, -9.3 (#29 offense, #26 defense)
A 6-22 record after trading Vucevic, Gordon, and Fournier truly reflects how much of a rebuild Orlando shifted to. In the most interesting chain reaction to those deals, Wendell Carter was the primary starting center with averages of 11.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 26.5 minutes on 49.3%/24.1%/72.1% shooting compared to incumbent center Mo Bamba's 11.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks, and even 1.2 threes made on 46.9%/33.7%/71.2% shooting in 20.8 minutes over that span. That battle between draft class rivals remains one to keep an eye on.
#29. Thunder: 22-50, -10.6 (#30 offense, #24 defense)
After starting 19-24, Oklahoma City really went 3-26 in an incredible tank job, although a win on the last day of the season, despite their best efforts to the contrary, left them tied for the 4th best odds in the lottery. Their 10th ranked defense at the All-Star Break dropped to 29th in the second half of the season as they went with a crazy amount of inexperienced players. The good news is that they were 16-19 when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played, they own what feels like half of all draft picks in the next six years, and in addition to their own top pick, they have a 47.86% chance of getting the #5 pick from Houston instead of Miami's #18 pick. They did lose out on Golden State's top-20 protected 1st round pick, but it becoming the #36 pick from Minnesota is a decent consolation prize.
#30. Rockets: 17-55, -7.9 (#27 offense, #27 defense)
That pick swap with OKC meant that it was in Houston's best interests to have one of the three worst records for the best chance at keeping their top-four protected pick. Mission accomplished with a 6-32 second half of the season leading to the absolute worst record. Surprisingly, they actually only have the 4th worst point differential in the league as they do have some talent. Like the Thunder, though, a focus on playing young players led to their #11 defense in the first half of the season dropping to the absolute worst after the Break. Now they have to pray that the odds are ever in their favor come the lottery on June 22nd with the nearly 50/50 chance of dropping all the way to the 18th pick after this dreadful season.
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