We've finally arrived: it's football season! As usual, I'll be making picks in a CBSSports.com pool based on their listed spreads and writing each week my reasoning behind them. To start the year, I'm picking each team's over/under based on the win totals listed on Bovada.lv based on their records last year, offseason moves, and their Expected Wins listed on Pro-Football-Reference.com based on points scored and allow. I also made these picks before last night's game, I swear.
Road Favorites
Ravens -5.5 at Dolphins
Dolphins (7 wins last year; 5.2 expected wins) UNDER 4.5: I grouped these by category, but it works out nicely that it starts with the team I expect to be the worst in the league. Miami is doing a great job of acquiring draft assets in future drafts, but that's left a team that previously overachieved now without many quality players on the roster under rookie coach Brian Flores, especially on the offensive line following the Laremy Tunsil trade for the mother load.
Ravens (10 wins; 10.8 expected wins) OVER 8.5: They lost two key pass rushers but did manage to replace Eric Weddle with Earl Thomas to keep the secondary among the best in the league. I'm cautiously optimistic about Greg Roman developing Lamar Jackson and this offense that added Mark Ingram and rookie receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin,
both of whom I'm high on. So while I think they might be one of the teams that drops out of the playoffs since half do every year, I don't expect a major step back from last season. In any case, they're plenty strong enough that Week 1 shouldn't pose many problems besides being another stupidly scheduled hot game in Florida early in the season.
Chiefs -4.5 at Jaguars
Chiefs (12 wins; 10.7 expected wins) OVER 10.5: And from the lowly Dolphins we go to the team that has the best chance to topple the Patriots for the crown. Even if LeSean McCoy ends up being as done as he looked last year, I believe in Damien Williams enough to provide the minimal support on the ground needed for Patrick Mahomes to lead another top flight offense. I didn't love all of their changes on defense, but any improvement under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could be enough to get them over the top. I also don't love how high this spread is on the road against a tough defense, but there's a lot less uncertainty with them to go along with the quarterback advantage.
Jaguars (5 wins; 5.7 expected wins) UNDER 8: Although Nick Foles almost has to be an improvement under center by default, there's still a lot left to be desired along the offense. A healthier offensive line and Leonard Fournette can make things easier for Foles to find breakout candidates Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark, but that's far from a given. On the other side, Josh Allen was a steal with the 7th pick, but the absences of Telvin Smith and Tashaun Gipson will make it tough to remain elite.
Lions -2.5 at Cardinals
Cardinals (3 wins; 2.9 expected wins) UNDER 5: The team with the worst record last year carries a lot of intrigue with their sweeping changes that brought in rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. They should be a lot more competitive with this new Air Raid offense that can help overcome questions along a new offensive line, but the defense isn't likely to keep up, especially in the secondary while Patrick Peterson is suspended.
Lions (6 wins; 7 expected wins) UNDER 6: Similar to their Week 1 opponent, I have concerns about the secondary and, more importantly in this case, the coaching. The run-first nature of coach Matt Patricia and new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell doesn't appear to play to the roster's strengths and caps the team's ceiling in a division containing tough defenses. That being said, Matthew Stafford should have a field day against this week's defense with whatever passing volume he receives.
