Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 17-18 2023

And just like that, the 2023-24 NFL regular season is done. I'm going to wrap up this series with just a few observations that cover both the fantasy season (with most finals in Week 17) and overall season. As I've written throughout, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• CeeDee Lamb won a lot of fantasy championships with his monstrous 40.2 points from 13 catches for 227 yards and touchdown, and the crazy thing is that it could've been an even bigger night if he hadn't lost a fumble reaching for the pylon. As if that's not enough, he had another 13 catch performance in the regular season finale for 35.5 points. Overall on the season, he finished with the most total PPR points among wide receivers and an average of 23.72 while playing 83.70% of the Cowboys' snaps, running a route on 91.42% of the dropbacks, and seeing 29.92% of the targets.
  
  Those are absolutely alpha receiver numbers, and they're even better when you isolate them from Week 6 on, which is when Lamb had a conversation with Mike McCarthy about how he's being used following their embarrassing loss to the 49ers. He proceeded to go on an insane 12 game stretch averaging 27.69 points with 87.84%, 92.49%, and 32.88% rates. It helped that McCarthy reverted the offense back to their pass-heavy ways instead of forcing a run-heavy game plan, and practically running the offense through Lamb resulted in them finishing the season 9-3. 108 catches for 1,391 yards and 11 TDs with 11 carries for another 92 yards and 2 scores would make for an awesome season let alone 12 game stretch, so I can't wait to see what he does for an encore next season.
  

2023-24 NBA Trade Tracker

Well that was unexpected! The NBA Trade Deadline isn't until February 8th, but the Raptors and Knicks kicked off trade season early to prompt the start of my usual transaction tracker. This will be a one stop shop for every in-season NBA trade, when it went down, who first reported it (as far as I know), and the contracts/picks involved to look back on like last season's. The format will be like the offseason tracker where I add each new deal to the top to make it easy to see any updates, and the color code as usual is player option, team option, and not fully guaranteed along with estimates. Otherwise, these cap numbers are courtesy of Keith Smith at Spotrac.com.

2/9 update: Now that yesterday's deadline is firmly in the rearview, I went back and added more details that have emerged for each deal. It probably makes the most sense to start with trades at the bottom and work up chronologically, but as always, Command + F is a friend to find specific players. To make things easier, here is a summary of what each team did over the past six weeks, listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Celtics +265

Traded for: Xavier Tillman, Jaden Springer, and one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)

Traded away: Lamar Stevens, Dalano Banton, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Nuggets +425

Traded for: Cash considerations

Traded away: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Clippers +550

Traded for: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Traded away: Cash considerations

Bucks +600

Traded for: Patrick Beverley and the draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)

Traded away: Cam Payne, Robin Lopez, a 2nd round pick, and cash considerations

Suns +1,200

Traded for: Royce O'Neale and David Roddy

Traded away: Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Chimezie Metu, Jordan Goodwin, three 2nd round picks, and one 1st round draft swap that was already Horcruxed.

76ers +1,800

Traded for: Buddy Hield, Cam Payne, and three 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected)

Traded away: Marcus Morris, Furkan Korkmaz, Danuel House, Patrick Beverley, Jaden Springer, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Knicks +2,000

Traded for: OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, and Precious Achiuwa

Traded away: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Ryan Arcidiacono, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Waived: DaQuan Jeffries

Timberwolves +2,000

Traded for:

Traded away:

Thunder +2,200

Traded for: Monte Morris

Traded away: Shake Milton, Troy Brown, and a 2nd round pick

Lakers +2,800

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Cavaliers +3,500

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Heat +3,500

Traded for: Terry Rozier

Traded away: Kyle Lowry and a 1st round pick

Mavericks +4,000

Traded for: PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, and two 2nd round picks

Traded away: Grant Williams, Richaun Holmes, Seth Curry, one 1st round pick, and one 1st round pick swap

Kings +5,000

Traded for: Robin Lopez and cash considerations

Traded away: Draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)

Waived: Robin Lopez

Pelicans +6,000

Traded for: Cash considerations

Traded away: Kira Lewis and one 2nd round pick

Warriors +7,000

Traded for: one 2nd round pick

Traded away: Cory Joseph, one 2nd round pick (top-55 protected), and cash consideration

Pacers +11,000

Traded for: Pascal Siakam, Doug McDermott, Furkan Korkmaz, Cory Joseph, four 2nd round picks (though one is top-55 protected), and cash considerations

Traded away: Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, Jordan Nwora, three 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick

Waived: James Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, and Cory Joseph

Magic +25,000

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Hawks +40,000

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Jazz +60,000

Traded for: Otto Porter Jr, Kira Lewis, Kevin Knox, one 1st round pick, one 2nd round pick, and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)

Traded away: Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji

Waived: Kevin Knox

Bulls +60,000

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Rockets +60,000

Traded for: Steven Adams

Traded away: Victor Oladipo and three 2nd round picks

Nets +100,000

Traded for: Dennis Sschroder, Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, Thaddeus Young, and three 2nd round picks

Traded away: Royce O'Neale and Spencer Dinwiddie

Waived: Harry Giles, Jordan Goodwin, and Thaddeus Young

Raptors +100,000

Traded for: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, Jordan Nwora, Spencer Dinwiddie, two 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick

Traded away: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Dennis Schroder, Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr, Thaddeus Young, and Malachi Flynn

Waived: Spencer Dinwiddie and Christian Koloko

Grizzlies +100,000

Traded for: Yuta Watanabe, Lamar Stevens, Chimezie Metu, Victor Oladipo, one 1st round pick swap (that was already Horcruxed), and five 2nd round picks

Traded away: Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Steven Adams

Waived: Chimezie Metu and Victor Oladipo

Trail Blazers +100,000

Traded for: Dalano Banton and cash considerations

Traded away: one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)

Spurs +100,000

Traded for: Marcus Morris (likely to be waived), one 2nd round pick, and cash considerations

Traded away: Doug McDermott

Wizards +100,000

Traded for: Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Livers, one 1st round pick, and two 2nd round picks

Traded away: Daniel Gafford, Danilo Gallinari, and Mike Muscala

Hornets +100,000

Traded for: Grant Williams, Kyle Lowry (likely buyout), Tre Mann, Seth Curry, Vasilije Micic, Davis Bertans, two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks

Traded away: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, and two 2nd round picks

Waived: James Bouknight, Ish Smith, and Frank Ntilikina

Pistons +100,000

Traded for: Simone Fontecchio, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Shake Milton, Troy Brown, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Malachi Flynn, Ryan Arcidiacono, Danuel House, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Traded away: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Monte Morris, Mavin Bagley III, Isaiah Livers, Kevin Knox, four 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected), and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)

Waived: Joe Harris, Killian Hayes, Danilo Gallinari, Danuel House, and Ryan Arcidiacono

Golden State buys a pick and trims their tax bill (Shams with the news, Tony East the details 2/8)

Warriors receive:

2024 2nd round pick: Worst of Bucks, Cavaliers, or Pelicans

Pacers receive:

Cory Joseph

$2,019,706

2025 Hornets 2nd round pick: top-55 protected 

Cash considerations

Since Second Apron teams like the Warriors won't be able to just buy 2nd round picks anymore going forward (or send cash in deals in general as mentioned below), this is a sneaky good move to spend now now to get the worst of the Pacers' four 2nd rounders while also trimming their luxury tax bill by about $13.5 million due to the repeater penalty. Now they have an open roster spot to convert my guy Lester Quinones to a regular contract by the end of the season, ideally on a multi-year deal, which will eat into those savings but not significantly. Indy had an open roster spot and received more than what's left on Joseph's salary (reportedly $5.8 million) for one of their extra picks, and now they're promptly waiving the veteran guard along with Korkmaz from their earlier trade.

Clippers buy draft rights while they can (Law Murray, 2/8)

Clippers receive:

Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Nuggets receive:

Cash considerations

Not exactly a blockbuster, but as a Second Apron team, the Clips are about to be unable to send out cash in trades. It was a use or lose it scenario, so they are taking a flier on a 23 year old French big man in Kamagate, who is currently playing in Italy.

Boston adds Springer and sheds Banton (Woj, 2/8)

Celtics receive:

Jaden Springer

$2,226,240

$4,018,363

2027 2nd round pick: top-55 protected

Trail Blazers receive:

Dalano Banton

$2,019,706

$2,196,970

Cash considerations

76ers receive:

2024 2nd round pick: More favorable of Bulls or Pelicans

These are two separate trades, but I'm just lumping them together here since they're related for Boston (and the Celtics PR release did the same). Springer is likely going into the Grant Williams Trade Exception that they wouldn't be able to use in the offseason as a Second Apron team, and he takes Banton's roster spot as a young wing with some upside who likely won't play much. Keith Pompey provided the details above for the real 2nd that they sent to Philly for Springer (compared to the fake one from Portland for Banton), so they have at least some hope that the #28 pick in 2021 can tap into his upside. He's recently gotten a showcase of minutes with all of the 76ers' injuries, and while he hasn't shot it well, there have been flashes of defensive tenacity for the 21 year old. 

This leaves Philadelphia with only Joel Embiid and Paul Reed under contract for next season, with the latter's not even guaranteed unless they win a playoff series. Tyrese Maxey's relatively small cap hold will of course still be on the books along with possibly De'Anthony Melton's, but they will have enough room to sign a max contract and more.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 13-16 2023

It's here: fantasy football championship week! Since my last post, rookies Tank Dell and Keaton Mitchell suffered unfortunate injuries, but Rachaad White and Trey McBride have continued getting the type of awesome usage that is the point of this series. Once again, I did not mean to have to lump in this many weeks for one post, but the holiday season got in the way. That means there's a lot to talk about, so I'll just get to it with the regular note that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• When talking about ideal workloads, the conversation pretty much starts with Christian McCaffrey. He just played 100% of the 49ers snaps for the third time this year while also seeing 10 targets for a 22.73% target share that would make a lot of wide receivers blush. Overall on the season he's played 82.78% of the snaps with a 18.62% target share while also getting 74.78% of the running back carries. The combination of receiving and goal line usage in Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme has led to averaging 25.21 PPR points, which is not only the highest among all players but almost 5 points higher than the next RB. The fantasy MVP should have a solid shot of winning the actual NFL award considering his 1,932 yards from scrimmage are 276 more than anyone else and he's tied for the most touchdowns scored at 21. He's just two away from matching Jerry Rice's franchise record (although the GOAT WR did it in just 12 games due to a strike season), and he could get it with a game to spare to lead fantasy managers to the promised land against Washington's pushover defense.
  
  
• Staying in the Bay Area, the splits with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are fascinating. In the 11 games that both have finished, they have identical 81.42% snap rates and 22.52% target shares with Samuel running routes on 89.77% of the dropbacks to Aiyuk's 89.49%. Deebo's unparalleled nose for the end zone gives him a PPG edge of 17.65 to 16.46 in those contests, and he does benefit from 2.67 carries for extra opportunities. Aiyuk is the more refined pure WR who relies a bit more on big plays, as his league-leading 18.5 yards per reception indicates, and his 1,203 receiving yards paces the team. If Samuel gets 166 receiving yards these last two weeks to hit the century mark, these two and George Kittle (currently at 991 yards), could become just the sixth trio in NFL history to all hit 1,000 yards and the first since 2008 Cardinals. That team was led to the Super Bowl by Kurt Warner, whom you may have heard has some similarities with a certain 49ers' QB.
  
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 8-12 2023

After the Harden trade was my weekly post and then my schedule didn't allow one in recent weeks, it's time to get back into the swing of things! With a lot to touch on, I'll just get right to things with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Trey McBride wast the last bullet point in the last Gio-ing Deep I wrote, and while I've tried not to repeat players in back to back posts, his recent play definitely calls for it. In the five games since Zach Ertz was placed on IR, the second year TE has averaged 14.82 points while playing 83.13% of the snaps, participating in 82.14% of the routes, and commanding a massive 27.5% target share. That's even with the 5.2 dud when rookie Clayton Tune was an inept fill-in starter against the elite Browns defense. In just the three games that Kyler Murray has played, McBride has very similar 14.47, 87.31%, 85.37%, and 24.04% splits. Ertz asked for and was granted his release yesterday to join a contender, so it is firmly McBride TE1 SZN.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another young TE that's been on the rise since a veteran teammate went down is Dalton Kincaid. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, things actually were already trending up in the last game that Dawson Knox played, with the rookie putting up 15.5 points despite Knox playing 63.38% of the snaps. In the six games from that week on, the 1st-round pick has averaged 14.1 points with a 21.13% target share. That's come while running a route on 79.61% of the dropbacks despite only playing 71.63% of the snaps as he's much more of a big slot receiver than true tight end at this point.
  
  The Bills had switched to much more two "tight end" sets early in the season with Kincaid in a hybrid role before reverting back to their typical three WR sets with Knox out, so it will be interesting to see what they go whenever he returns. A big factor could be the fact that Khalil Shakir, a sleeper I liked in the 2022 draft, has stepped up in the five games without Knox. His snap rate got bumped up to 73.58% during this time with an even higher 75.12% route participation, and he's turned a 12.07% target share into 11.3 points per game.
  
  

The Harden Trade, Part IV

Clippers receive:

James Harden

$35,680,595

P.J. Tucker

$11,014,500

$11,539,000

Filip Petrusev

$1,119,563

$1,891,857

76ers receive:

Marcus Morris	$17,116,279
Nicolas Batum	$11,710,818

Robert Covington

$11,692,308

Kenyon Martin Jr.

$1,930,681

2026 1st round pick (least favorable of the Clippers, Rockets, or Thunder)

2028 Clippers 1st round pick

Right to swap 2029 1st round picks with the Clippers (top-3 protected)

2024 and 2029 2nd round picks

Cash considerations (reportedly $2 million)

Thunder receive:

Right to swap 2027 1st round picks with the Clippers

Cash considerations (reportedly $1.1 million)

A Woj bomb dropping at 11 pm PST the night before the NFL Trade Deadline was hilarious, even if it took an unusually long 38 minutes to get the players involved reported after the initial news. And the draft assets involved still have yet to have actual details! There was some buzz (I believe I heard it on The Lowe Post) that Los Angeles were shopping an unprotected 1st of theirs for two protected picks to entice Philadelphia. Based on Woj's follow up tweet, it would appear they were successful, and Oklahoma City first comes to mind as a team who has more picks than they can use and might look to consolidate.

The initial takeaway here is that the Clips managed to get this done without giving up Terance Mann, and that the 76ers included Tucker's salary to open up even more cap space for next summer while also waiving Danny Green to create a roster spot for this. I'll dive into it more in the morning when more information is confirmed about the picks, but I wanted to get a first look at the salaries involved (with credit to Keith Smith on Spotrac) posted for comparison.

BREAKING: The Philadelphia 76ers have agreed on a trade to send guard James Harden to the Los Angeles Clippers, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/wAyuJKMfAw

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 31, 2023

10/31 update: It in fact was OKC who got involved as a third team, and I updated the final tally above now that we have more details. Only getting a 2027 pick swap in order to send the worst of their 2026 1st rounders (as Derek Bodner reported) isn't as great of a value as I thought they'd get, but they're making a gamble on the upside of the Clippers being on a big decline by then. It is also kind of fitting that they got those picks from the trades of Paul George and Russell Westbrook (with the Rockets pick top-4 protected) and that they're involved in reuniting the latter with Harden yet again after they started their careers as Thunder players.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 7 2023

Some of my observations from last week turned into the kiss of death for the players involved. Even the headliner who continued his strong performance, Joshua Palmer, apparently got banged up and is questionable for this weekend. Hopefully things go more smoothly this time around.

As always, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 7 kicked off on Thursday Night Football with another huge game for Alvin Kamara. The running back saw 14 of the team's 53 targets for a huge 26.42% target share, and he's now up to a wide receiver-like 24.07% share (an astounding 9.75 looks per game) since coming off of the three-game suspension to start the year. Combined with seeing 76.67% of the RB carries (17.25 per game), he's averaging 21.7 points so far in PPR formats. With New Orleans' offensive line so banged up, it often feels like quick dump offs to Kamara are the only thing that Derek Carr can consistently execute.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another 'back who also got off to a late start and now is seeing a somewhat surprising amount of work through the air is Jonathan Taylor. After getting activated off of the PUP list and signing a large extension, he was eased into just 15.15% of the snaps in Week 5. That number went up to 42.31% and then 50% this past week, as you'd expect, with subsequent point totals of 11.5 and 21. What you might not expect is that a decent part of that production is thanks to target shares of 11.54% and 18.18%. Having more of a pocket passer like Garnder Minshew going forward means more check downs than Taylor might have seen with Anthony Richardson, who could just take off on a scramble instead. That is encouraging to see as a supplemental path to points since Zack Moss isn't likely to go away after filling in so admirably early in the season. Moss has played 50% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks while getting the call on 46.67% and 50.00% of the RB carries, and I'd expect things to end up around a 60-40 or 67-33 split in Taylor's favor going forward.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2023

It was nice to see Drake London and Jakobi Meyers have nice games following last week's post, and Zach Evans might even be the Rams' new starting running back now after I gave him a shout, as well.

Now here are some other observations from this past week with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 6 started on TNF with the most frustrating game yet for rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims, who had a season-low snap rate of 23.08% and failed to see a target for the first time in his young career. Journeyman Lil'Jordan Humphrey was cut during the week and still played more snaps than Mims (after being re-signed to the practice squad and elevated for the game) despite the rookie being the team's most explosive playmaker. He's had catches of 60 yards (a touchdown), 53 yards, 48 yards, 38 yards, and 30 yards along with a 99 yard kickoff return TD and punt returns of 45 yards and 25 yards. Despite this, Mims has played only 27.32% of the snaps and run routes on 26.48% of the team's dropbacks, resulting in just a 7.06% target share. Consistently putting Brandon Johnson and sometimes Humphrey out there instead is some criminal coaching by Sean Payton for the 1-5 Broncos, especially after they traded up to get Mims in the 2nd round as the first selection of his tenure. It does feel like only a matter of time before Jerry Jeudy gets traded, so maybe then the rookie will finally be unleashed.
  
  
• The week essentially ended on MNF when Justin Herbert threw an interception under pressure on a ball intended for another rookie WR, Quentin Johnston. I was eagerly anticipating how this offense would look with Austin Ekeler back and the potential for the 1st rounder to get more involved coming out of the bye, but things mostly held to the status quo. In his first game since Week 1, Ekeler played 68.49% of the snaps, got 87.5% of the RB carries (14, after 15 in the opener when he got injured), and saw a 16.22% target share much like the 16.13% mark in his previous game. Meanwhile, Johnston's 47.95% snap rate was similar to his 50.77% before the bye, but his route participation dropped from 70.97% to 47.73% this game. Just a 5.41% target share resulted in two looks, and he's been between 2 and 3 targets in every game so far.
  
  It's looking like Joshua Palmer's role is secure as a result, and his 10 PPR points this week could've been more if not for a couple of nice gains, including a TD, called back by penalty. Starting in Week 3 when Mike Williams tore his ACL, Palmer has seen 7, 8, and 7 targets and averaged 11.8 points. In the two full games as the #2 WR, he's played 92.03% of the snaps and ran routes on 98.67% of the dropbacks to earn a 24.59% target share in this high-powered offense. Last year, Palmer averaged 13.3 points with a 21.66% target share in the 10 games from Weeks 2 through 13 when either Williams or Keenan Allen missed time, and it was 18.07 with a 23.14% target share in the final three of those games when playing with Allen and no Williams for all but 6 snaps. The former could be the baseline for the rest of this season with Johnston off to such a slow start while the latter provides an enticing upside with the same kind of setup going forward.